How to Lose the Middle Ground: Cameron's Folly Will Be Ed's Gain

Cameron looking tough

At this year’s Tory Party conference, we have seen clear signs that the party still has no idea how to win the middle ground, characterised by David Cameron’s vow to scrap welfare benefits for the under 25s. This may seem like a good idea to those who are steeped in Westminster party politics. They will see the right being split by the rise of UKIP, and want to address this, whilst putting distance between themselves and their adversaries on the opposition benches, as well as their coalition partners, and appeal to their traditional, and ageing, right wing base. This attempt to sure up the right wing vote might just achieve that aim, but, the Tories want to achieve a majority at the next election and the right wing vote will not be nearly enough to do so. If they think that their lurch to the right will secure them their majority government then they will probably be surprised at how this latest tranche of right wing policies are perceived outside of this conference and away from their traditional base.

In 2010 the Tory Party were unable to gain a majority in Parliament, forcing them into a coalition government with the Lib Dems. They failed to achieve this at a time when the Labour government was deeply unpopular, appeared to be utterly shambolic and when the Tories had been shaping the political narrative. On top of this we were in the process of financial meltdown and the Tory narrative was even stronger on economic issues. This owes largely to the fact that the Lib Dems were far better at appealing to the middle ground voter in crucial swing seats between them and the their now coalition partners, as well as Labour still being able to win crucial middle ground voters in swing seats that they contested with their long-standing right wing rivals. This lack of appeal to what is now labelled the ‘squeezed middle’ by Ed Miliband was in spite of the Tory Party moving towards the centre ground under the leadership of David Cameron.

Rewarded for failure

Before David Cameron’s leadership, the country regularly rejected the Tory Party, its right wing leaders and its right wing policies. Their strategy to overcome this was to move to the centre and become more appealing to the middle, a strategy that they clearly failed to fully implement, as they did not manage an electoral victory even with a favourable wind and an easy to follow and popular narrative. The Lib Dems were able to appeal to the young and their aspirational parents, by standing against tuition fees, and Labour were able to hold onto support earned before the financial crisis hit and when the Labour government was largely seen as making the UK a better place to live. I find it hard to comprehend how the elections since the turn of the century could persuade the Tory Party that they need to anything other than move further towards the centre, apparently their strategists live in a different country to the one that I inhabit; of course this is true, I am one of the underemployed working poor, they, to put it mildly, are not and could never understand this position.

Let them starve on the streets!

Anyhow, on to the main point that prompted me to write this piece, Cameron’s pledge to scrap welfare benefits for the under 25s, which will somehow, nobody knows how, achieve the goals of reducing youth unemployment and giving people hope for the future. I am not kidding; this really is the stated aim. Now, the ‘squeezed middle’ is already struggling, they have seen living standards drop, real wages drop, prices increase and their children missing out on the opportunities they felt were promised. I'm not sure how trying to brand the children of these people as some sort of lazy work-shy slackers is seen as a good idea, but it appears to be seen as such in the far away world of Tory HQ. Many in the middle have not minded the attacks on the poor and the branding of them as slackers, they liked being referred to as strivers and it didn't feel like it affected them. What does effect the middle is youth unemployment and under employment. You can get away with branding the poor as scroungers but you cannot get away with branding the children of ‘strivers’ as such, most people know the reality. There are simply not enough jobs, not enough opportunities and the world outside of the parental home is unaffordable to many and a struggle for most others. It is not the fault of those coming out of education that there are no jobs for them, they have not been running the economy and they are not supposed to be the job creators. This lurch to the right may appeal to Cameron’s ageing base, but it will not appeal to the very voters that are key to deciding the next election, the ‘squeezed middle.’

Who's a happy Ed

When you contrast the Tories lurch to the right with the vibe coming out of the Labour conference, it is even more stark just how stupid failing to appeal, and even turning away, the voters in the middle really is. Ed Miliband has actually managed to move away from the centre ground as well by announcing policies which are certainly of the left, although I would argue the centre ground has been shifted to the right over the last 35 years, but the difference with Ed’s move is that he has directly appealed to the ‘squeezed middle’ that will determine the outcome of the next election. Miliband has hit out at what he sees as irresponsible capitalism and announced measures that would cut people’s bills and reform a sector widely despised. What Ed and his team have achieved is a set of policies not only popular with the party’s base but with the middle ground voters as well; Ed’s move towards his party’s routes has proven much more popular, in fact polls suggest that he could actually go further!

Conference season seems to have shown Labour are far more in touch with the realities of everyday life, and the desires of the electorate, than the Tory Party. Ed has enhanced his reputation and Cameron, and his colleagues, have turned the stomachs of many with their nauseating and callous attacks on the poor, the sick and the young; the elderly are lucky that the Tories are reliant on their votes! The Tories have not learned the lessons of past defeats, and the recent near miss, or the lessons failing to be learnt by the Republican Party in the US, and have lurched to the right with a series of policies that will ultimately make them unelectable. Ed Miliband on the other hand has appealed to the ‘squeezed middle’ by standing up for the weak against the strong rather than Cameron’s tactic of being strong on the weak and weak to the strong. Stand up for those who are seeing their living standards fall and their children struggle and you will win elections, stand up for bankers bonuses and hammer anyone not lucky enough to have wealth and you will lose.